The End of World Population Growth in the 21st Century New Challenges for Human Capital Formation and Sustainable Development

This volume, the first in a new series on population and sustainable development, provides new ways of thinking about population trends in the 21st century. While the 20th century was the century of population growth with the world's population increasing from 1.6 to 6.1 billion, this book shows that the 21st century is likely to see the end of world population growth and become the century of population ageing. At the moment we are at the crossroads of these two different demographic regimes, with some countries still experiencing high population growth while others are already faced with rapid ageing. This book presents a new framework for discovering the underlying unity in this demographic diversity.

The 20th century was the century of explosive population growth, resulting in unprecedented impacts; in contrast, the 21st century is likely to see the end of world population growth and become the century of population aging. We are currently at the crossroads of these demographic regimes. This book presents fresh evidence about our demographic future and provides a new framework for understanding the underlying unity in this diversity. It is an invaluable resource for those concerned with the implications of population change in the 21st century. The End of World Population Growth in the 21st Century is the first volume in a new series on Population and Sustainable Development. The series provides fresh ways of thinking about population trends and impacts.

Introduction * The End of World Population Growth * Applications of Probabilistic Population Forecasting * Future Human Capital: Population Projections by Level of Education * Literate Life Expectancy: Charting the Progress in Human Development * Population-Environment-Development-Agriculture Interactions in Africa: A Case Study on Ethiopia * Interactions between Education and HIV: Demographic Examples from Botswana * China's Future Urban and Rural Population by Level of Education * Population, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Climate Change * Conceptualizing Population in Sustainable Development: from 'Population Stabilization' to Population Balance' * Index

Wolfgang Lutz is leader of the Population at the International Institute for Applied Systems (IIASA) and director of the Vienna Institute of Demography of the Austrian Academy of Sciences. Warren C Sanderson is a professor in the Departments of Economics and History at the State University of New York at Stony Brook and is co-chair of the Department of Economics there. Sergei Scherbov is a senior scientist at the Vienna Institute of Demography of Austrian Academy of Sciences and a senior research scholar at IIASA.