Survival February - March 2022 The Reckoning: Russia, Ukraine and NATO

Survival, the IISS’s bimonthly journal, challenges conventional wisdom and brings fresh, often controversial, perspectives on strategic issues of the moment. In this issue: · The Ukraine crisis: Robert Hunter argues that the most important requirement of successful US-led negotiations with Russia is that Moscow demonstrate that it is prepared to be a responsible international actor · Erin Sikorsky contends that climate change should have a larger role in the day-to-day national-security agendas of the United States and other countries · Stephan Frühling and Andrew O’Neil warn that current US debates about no first use tend to underplay the broader alliance implications of any shift in US nuclear policy · Rahul Roy-Chaudhury and Kate Sullivan de Estrada assess that, given the 2021 US FONOP targeting India, Washington and New Delhi need to better manage their diverse positions on global governance, especially in the maritime domain · Nien-chung Chang-Liao warns that pragmatism in Chinese foreign policy is waning and considers why Chinese diplomats have become so aggressive And nine more thought-provoking pieces, as well as our regular Book Reviews and Noteworthy column. Editor: Dr Dana Allin Managing Editor: Jonathan Stevenson Associate Editor: Carolyn West Assistant Editor: Jessica Watson

Survival 64.1 (February–March 2022), pp. 1–236 The Ukraine Crisis: Why and What Now?, by Robert Hunter Hope Deferred: Russia from 1991 to 2021, by Rodric Braithwaite Connecting Intelligence and Policy, by Gregory F. Treverton Geopolitical Forecasting and Actionable Intelligence, by Ian S. Lustick War with China: Five Scenarios, by Stacie L. Pettyjohn National Security and Climate Change: The Attention It Deserves?, by Erin Sikorsky Noteworthy Alliances and Nuclear Risk: Strengthening US Extended Deterrence, by Stephan Frühling and Andrew O’Neil Disruptive Technologies and Nuclear Risks: What’s New and What Matters, by Andrew Futter Geography Lessons: American Decline and the Challenge of Asia, by Barnett R. Rubin India and US FONOPs: Oceans Apart, by Rahul Roy-Chaudhury and Kate Sullivan de Estrada After Afghanistan: Intelligence Analysis and US Military Missions, by Julia Santucci Why Have Chinese Diplomats Become So Aggressive?, by Nien-chung Chang-Liao From 11 September to 6 January: A Vexingly Dotted Line, by Jonathan Stevenson Book Reviews Africa, by Karen Smith Russia and Eurasia, by Angela Stent Latin America, by Russell Crandall and Britta Crandall Asia-Pacific, by Lanxin Xiang Land and Sea: The Evolving Great-power Contest in Asia, by Samir Puri

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a registered charity with offices in Washington, London, Manama, Singapore and Berlin, is the world’s leading authority on political–military conflict. It is the primary independent source of accurate, objective information on international strategic issues. Publications include The Military Balance, an annual reference work on each nation’s defence capabilities; Strategic Survey, an annual review of world affairs; Survival, a bimonthly journal on international affairs; Strategic Comments, an online analysis of topical issues in international affairs; and the Adelphi series of books on issues of international security.