Risk, Reliability and Safety: Innovating Theory and Practice Proceedings of ESREL 2016 (Glasgow, Scotland, 25-29 September 2016)

Risk, Reliability and Safety contains papers describing innovations in theory and practice contributed to the scientific programme of the European Safety and Reliability conference (ESREL 2016), held at the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow, Scotland (25—29 September 2016). Authors include scientists, academics, practitioners, regulators and other key individuals with expertise and experience relevant to specific areas. Papers include domain specific applications as well as general modelling methods. Papers cover evaluation of contemporary solutions, exploration of future challenges, and exposition of concepts, methods and processes. Topics include human factors, occupational health and safety, dynamic and systems reliability modelling, maintenance optimisation, uncertainty analysis, resilience assessment, risk and crisis management.

1. Accelerated test design and analysis Development of process for adaptive lifetime estimation of mechanical assemblies using accelerated testing methods J.-P. Hietala, P. Ojala, P. Multanen, J. Miettinen & P. Saarenrinne Optimal design for accelerated degradation tests with stochastic model uncertainty L. Liu, X.-Y. Li, T.-M. Jiang & Jian-Guo Zhang Optimization of the dental implant testing based on FEM simulation of fatigue and accelerated life A. Müller, M. Hinz & S. Bracke Multivariable accelerated testing of seep through of humidity due to vibration in electric connector P. Ojala, J. Pippola, J.-P. Hietala, J. Miettinen, L. Frisk, P. Julkunen & E.-L. Varpe Methodology of the accelerated life test of a temperature sensor Z. Vintr & D. Vališ The method of analyzing accelerated degradation data based on acceleration factor constant principle Hao-WeiWang, K.N. Teng & B.L. Gai Combining nonparametric predictive inference and power-Weibull model for accelerated life testing Y. Yin, F.P.A. Coolen &T. Coolen-Maturi Research on accelerated degradation test for GaAs solar cells in LEO environment Yuanxin Zhang, X. Ma, HanWang & H. Jiang 2. Accident and incident investigation and modelling 2.1 Aeronautics, aerospace and defence Different accident levels between offshore and onshore helicopter operations—a comparison of socio-technical systems R.J. Bye, S.O. Johnsen & G. Lillehammer 2.2 Chemical process industry CFD dispersion simulations of liquid argon releases in a deep underground large scale cryogenic installation E.C. Marcoulaki, A.G. Venetsanos & I.A. Papazoglou Investigation of crane operation safety by analysing main accident causes M.F. Milazzo, G. Ancione, V. Spasojevic Brkic & D. Vališ Accounting for wind direction and speed fluctuations on the prediction of flammable cloud dispersion A.M. Schleder & M.R. Martins Risk based workload and staffing level analysis L. Kotek, Z. Tuma, P. Blecha & L. Mukhametzianova 2.3 Critical infrastructure Cascading effects during incidents: CascEff A. Lönnermark & D. Lange 2.4 Maritime transportation Marine navigation accidents and influencing conditions: An exploratory statistical analysis using AIS data and accident databases A. Gilberg, E. Kleiven & R.J. Bye The use of ‘big data’ in constructing loss-based performance indicators in the maritime industry T. Kongsvik, R.J. Bye, P.G. Almklov & E. Kleiven A discussion of risk influencing factors for maritime accidents based on investigation reports M. Nilsen, P.G. Almklov, S. Haugen & R.J. Bye TRACEr-MAR—applying TRACEr in a maritime context J.-U. Schröder-Hinrichs, A. Graziano, G. Praetorius &A. Kataria Some reflections on pre- and post-accident analysis for water transport: A case study of the Eastern Star accident Y.Wang, E. Zio, S. Fu, D. Zhang & X.P. Yan 2.5 Nuclear industry Use of level 2 PSA to support NPP operators training on severe accident P. Groudev, P. Petrova, E. Kichev & K. Mancheva Accident progression and radiological analyses of the interfacing system loss of coolant accident for a typical pressurized water reactor S.Y. Park & K.I. Ahn Accident measures feasibility study based on context evaluation of human performance in design extension conditions G. Petkov & I. Petkov 2.6 Oil and gas industry Improving accident investigation by evaluating the pre-accident risk assessment and management from a fundamental risk perspective K. Bjørnsen &T. Aven Accident risk assessment of refineries depending on configuration and geographic location P. Burgherr, M. Spada, A. Kalinina, P. Eckle &Y. Pannatier Analysis of dynamic positioning system accidents and incidents with emphasis on root causes and barrier failures Y. Dong, B. Rokseth, J.E. Vinnem & I.B. Utne Explaining the explosion onboard FPSO Cidade de São Mateus from regulatory point of view C. Morais, A. Garcia, B. Silva, N. Ferreira &T. Pires CFD simulation of a time varying release of LPG in geometrical complex environment M. Pontiggia, M. Gerbec, J. Sužnik, M. Sbaouni & R. Lelong Assessing the consequences of accidental releases from sour oil and gas facilities C.G. Robinson &A.R. Halford Perspective and criticalities of CFD modelling for the analysis of oil and gas offshore accident scenarios A.C. Uggenti, A. Carpignano, L. Savoldi, R. Zanino & F. Ganci 2.7 Road transportation Variables influencing the severity of motorcycle and moped traffic accidents in Spain S. García-Herrero, M.A. Mariscal, R. Beltrán & J.M. Guitérrez Preliminary analysis of accident data of one of the BRT lines in Mexico City V. Ávalos-Bravo, D. Padilla-Pérez & J.R. Santos-Reyes 2.8 Other industries Analyses of social accidents and culture: A discussion of the geopolitical migration S. Ávila Filho, M.N.E. Fonseca & E.S. Bittencourt Assessment of an accident using FMEA to a tailings dam, a mining event in Brazil M.N.E. Fonseca & S. Ávila Filho Learning from accidents: Investigating the genesis of human errors in multi-attribute settings to improve the organisation of design R. Moura, M. Beer, E. Patelli, J. Lewis & F. Knoll 3. Analysis of natural hazards 3.1 Civil engineering/built environment Earthquake preparation and risk perception: The case of high school students in Mexico City T. Gouzeva, G. Santos-Reyes & J.R. Santos-Reyes Quantification of evolving regional vulnerability to hurricanes A. Reilly, S. Guikema, J. Garzon Hervas & C. Ferreira Seismic risk analysis of the Italian built environment at territorial scale A. Rasulo, M.A. Fortuna, G. Modoni & B. Borzi 3.2 Other industries Propagating spatial and thematic uncertainties in mountain natural hazard assessment process G. Dupouy, J.M. Tacnet, F. Bourrier, F. Berger, N. Crimier, K. Mekhnacha, M. Memier & E. Moulet-Vargas How risk perception of natural hazards influences the content of risk and vulnerability analyses and the implementation of risk reduction measures M. Leonhardsen, K.H. Olsen & O.E. Olsen Modeling information quality and traceability in risk management and decision processes: Application to mountain natural hazards L. Vidaud-Barral, J.M. Tacnet & F. Pinet 4. Bayesian models and statistical methods Generalized method of moments for an extended gamma process Z. Al Masry, S. Mercier & G. Verdier Bayesian model calibration using subset simulation Z.T. Gong, F.A. DiazDelaO & M. Beer Small data and conflicting information U. Sahlin Sensitivity analysis for Bayesian networks with interval probabilities S. Tolo, E. Patelli & M. Beer New methods for the availability prediction with confidence level P. Zeiler, F. Müller & B. Bertsche 4.1 Aeronautics, aerospace and defence Application of Bayesian network in safety analysis on civil aircraft systems HongliWang, D.M. Zhong &T.D. Zhao An attempt to determine the lifetime distribution of a device for random function forms of expected value and variance of the Gaussian distribution M. Zieja, M. Jasztal, S. Ste?pie´n & M.Wa?zny 4.2 Civil engineering/built environment Approaches to Bayesian network structure elicitation K. Zwirglmaier & D. Straub 4.3 Information technology and telecommunication A Bayesian network for diagnosis of networked mobile robots I. Sassi, A. Gouin & J.M. Thiriet 4.4 Manufacturing and supply chain/logistic systems Risk analysis of supply: Comparative performance and short-term prediction L.Walls, J. Quigley, M. Parsa & E. Comrie 4.5 Maritime transportation Quantifying error in deterministic predictions based on phase-resolved linear wave models F. Fucile, G. Bulian & C. Lugni Regression models for the effect of environmental conditions on the efficiency of ship machinery systems E. Vanem, A. Brandsæter & O. Gramstad 4.6 Mechanical systems and engineering Methodological framework for estimation of failure rates for various high-voltage battery systems T. Lehmann, O. Özgen & J. Keller Reliability

Lesley Walls is a Professor in the Department of Management Science at the University of Strathclyde, a Chartered Statistician and a Fellow of the UK Safety and Reliability Society. Her research interests include reliability modelling and risk analysis. Her work spans statistical methodology development and industry-facing applications. Lesley has been an Associate Editor of IEEE Transactions on Reliability and is a project leader for standards developed by the International Electrotechnical Committee on Dependability (IEC TC56). Matthew Revie is a Senior Knowledge Exchange Fellow at the University of Strathclyde. His research interests include reliability, availability and maintainability modelling, expert judgement and decision analysis. He has worked on over 25 applied research projects with more than 15 different organisations and has co-founded two industry facing research units. Matthew is on the editorial board of the IMechE Journal of Risk and Reliability, on the Board of Directors for the European Safety and Reliability Data Association, and a Fellow of the Operational Research Society. Tim Bedford is Professor of Management Science and Associate Deputy Principal (Knowledge Exchange) at the University of Strathclyde. His research aims at combining fundamental theoretical advances - particularly around probability and consequence modelling - with applications to real-life problems. He holds an Honorary Doctorate in recognition of his work in risk analysis, from the Faculté Polytechnique de Mons, and has recently been elected a Fellow of the Royal Society of Edinburgh, Scotland’s National Academy. Tim is a Fellow of the UK Safety and Reliability Society, a Fellow of the Institute for Mathematics and its Applications, and a member of the Editorial Board of Reliability Engineering and System Safety.