Improving Global Health Forecasting the Next 50 Years

Improving Global Health is the third in a series of volumes-Patterns of Potential Human Progress-that uses the International Futures (IFs) simulation model to explore prospects for human development: how development appears to be unfolding globally and locally, how we would like it to evolve, and how better to assure that we move it in desired directions. Earlier volumes addressed the reduction of global poverty and the advance of global education. Volume 3 sets out to tell a story of possible futures for the health of peoples across the world. Questions the volume addresses include: -What health outcomes might we expect given current patterns of human development? -What opportunities exist for intervention and the achievement of alternate health futures? -How might improved health futures affect broader economic, social, and political prospects of countries, regions, and the world?

List of Boxes, List of Figures, List of Tables, Abbreviations and Acronyms, 1. The Story So Far, 2. Understanding Health: Concepts, Relationships, and Dynamics, 3. Forecasting Global Health, 4. The Current Path as It Seems to Be Unfolding, 5. Analysis of Selected Proximate Risk Factors, 6. Analysis of Selected Environmental Risk Factors, 7. Forward Linkages, 8. Broadening and Integrating Our Perspective, 9. The Future of Global Health, Appendix: Countries in IFs by World Bank Developing Region and Economy Classification, Bibliography, Forecast Tables: Introduction and Glossary, Forecast Tables: Maps of Continents and Subregions, Forecast Tables, Index, Author Notes

Hughes, Barry B.; Kuhn, Randall; Peterson, Cecilia Mosca; Rothman, Dale S.; Solorzano, Jose Roberto