Epidemic Risk Analysis and Assessment in Transport Services COVID-19 and Other Viruses

"Accurate and fully explicit mathematical models and derivations make the proposed method truly universal irrespective of the geographical location and the kind of virus epidemic." Minvydas Ragulskis, Kaunas University of Technology, Lithuania The effects of a pandemic on public, personal and freight transport can be sudden and massive, and yet transport is vital to the functioning of an advanced economy and society. On the other hand, transport, due to social mobility, has a decisive influence on the speed and scope of epidemic spread. This book presents a complete methodology for assessing the hazards, and probability and risks of viral transmission on transport services, using as a detailed example the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic. It gives proposals and recommendations for estimating human deaths caused by virus infection in transport. Significantly, it considers not only passenger transport but also freight transport, such as delivery or parcel services. The tools include a matrix of hazard assessment in various transportation services, with a methodology for estimating the probability of virus transmission through both droplets and surface contact. These allow estimation of the effects of infections and consequent epidemic risk in all kinds of transport services, including freight, and provide methods for forecasting and risk management which determine transport safety. Rafal Burdzik is a professor in the Faculty of Transport and Aviation Engineering at Silesian University of Technology, Poland, with more than 20 years of transport research experience.

1 Introduction 2 Risk Management in Transport 3 Matrix of Hazard Assessment in Transport Services in Light of the Threats of the SARS- CoV- 2 Pandemic 4 Methodology for Estimating the Probability of Viral Pathogen Transmission in Transport 5 Methodology for Estimating the Exposure to and Effects of Viral Infection in Transport Services 6 Comprehensive Method of Epidemic Risk Assessment in Transport 7 Conclusion

Rafal Burdzik is a professor in the Faculty of Transport and Aviation Engineering at Silesian University of Technology, Poland and visiting lecturer at many European Universities with more than twenty years of transport research experience. He is an author or co-author of books and more than 400 scientific papers, and an editorial board member for several high level scientific journals and active member of numerous scientific associations, editorial boards and committees. He is a well-recognized international expert in transport, mechanical engineering, transport safety and environmental issues.