Environmental Impact Assessment, Technology Assessment, and Risk Analysis Contributions from the Psychological and Decision Sciences

This volume is the outcome of a recent NATO Advanced Study Institute (ASI) on "Technology Assessment. Environmental Impact Assessment. and Risk Analysis: Contributions from the Psychological and Decision Sciences." The Institute was held in Les Arcs. France and functioned as a high level teaching activity during which scientific research results were presented in detail by eminent lecturers. Support for the Institute was provided by grants from the NATO Division of Scientific Affairs. the u.S. Office of Naval Research. and the Russell Sage Foundation. The Institute covered several areas of research. including quantitative studies on decision and judgmental processes. studies on human intellectual limitations. studies on risk attitudes and perceptions. studies on factors contributing to conflicts and disputes about hazardous technologies and activities. studies on factors influencing forecasts and judgments by experts. studies on public preferences for decisionmaking processes. studies on public responses to technological hazards. and case studies applying principles and methods from the psychological and decision sciences in specific settings.

Section I. Overview.- Social & Behavioral Research on Risk: Uses in Risk Management Decisionmaking.- Risk Theory and the Environmental Assessment Process.- Assessing Long-Range Cumulative Impacts.- The Impact of EIA on Decisionmaking.- Opportunities for the Social Sciences in Risk Analysis — An Engineer’s View Point.- Section II. Psychological Perspectives.- 1: Theoretical and Methodological Contributions.- The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice.- Rating the Risks: The Structure of Expert and Lay Perceptions.- Large-Scale Risk as a Problem of Technological, Psychological, and Political Judgment.- Psychological Perspectives on Technology as Societal Option, Source of Hazard, and Generator of Environmental Impacts.- Prediction. Diagnosis, and Causal Thinking in Forecasting.- Risk Judgment and the Communication of Hazard Information: Toward a New Look in the Study of Risk Perception.- Who’s Afraid of Technological Risk?: An Attempt to Model Reasonable Emotions.- Psychological Aspects of Scenarios.- 2: Case Studies.- The Empirical Investigation of Citizens’ Preferences with Respect to Four Energy Scenarios.- Attitude Studies by the IAEA/IIASA Risk Assessment Group.- Structure of Public Opinion, Nuclear Debate, and Risk Assessment: A French Survey.- Improving Scientists’ Judgments of Risk.- Section III. Decision and System Science Perspectives.- 1: Theoretical and Methodological Contributions.- Issues in Evaluating Risks of Fatalities.- Natural and Technical Hazards: Similarities and Differences.- Illusions and Mirages in Public Policy.- The Multiple Perspective Concept: Bridging the Gap Between Analysts and Decisionmakers.- The Delphi Technique.- Expert Judgment for Human Reliability in Risk Analysis.- Scientific and Technological Uncertainty inQuantitative Assessment and Policy Analysis.- 2: Case Studies.- An Approach for Assessing Health Risks Associated with Alternative Ambient Air Quality Standards.- A Decision-Analytic Technology Assessment of Public-Key Cryptography.- An Asbestos Hazard Index for Managing Friable Asbestos Insulating Material.- The Social Compatibility of Energy Technologies — Theoretical and Empirical Approaches in West Germany.- Section IV. Cultural and Philosophical Perspectives: Theoretical and Methodological Contributions.- Limits of Rationality.- Three Types of Risk Assessment: A Methodological Analysis.- From Public Perception of Risk to Cultural Theory of Technology.- Section V. Policy Analytic, Administrative, and Legal Perspectives: Theoretical and Methodological Contributions.- Public Disputes about Risky Technologies: Stakeholders and Arenas.- Heuristic Opinion and Preference Evaluation Research for Assessing Technological Options — A User’s View.- Canvey Island: The Dynamics of a Major Technological Risk Assessment.- Political Decisionmaking and Scientific Indeterminancy.- Standard-Setting Standards: A Systematic Approach to Managing Public Health and Safety Risks.- Law, Risk Management and the Influence of the Psychological and Decision Sciences.