Eldercare Labor Demand in China and Coping Strategies

This book employs Markov models and propensity score matching methods to analyze the demand for elderly care labor, utilizing data from the China Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) and World Population Prospects 2022 (United Nations, 2022). The model predicts the health transferring scenario among the aging population firstly, and then the demand for elderly care labor from 2022 to 2058 under a fixed care time demand scenario according to 8-hour working system, as well as national and provincial regulations on caregiver-carereceiver ratios. The accelerated aging process and rapid increase in the younger elderly population will result in a rapid increase in the demand for elderly care labor for the healthy elderly until about 2042, with a 1.5-fold increase. This is followed by accelerated growth in the demand for elderly care labor for the impaired and dysfunctional aging population. Over time, the supply of older adults without care will gradually increase, nearly doubling by 2058 compared to 2022. It is recommended that on the one hand, eldercare labor demand in China can be reduced from the origin by improving the health of the population; and on the other hand, the effective supply of elderly care be expanded by building a modern care service system, improving relevant policies, integrating care resources, and innovating the supply model.

1. Introduction.- 2. Conceptual definition and theoretical basis.- 3. Characteristics of population aging and eldercare pressure in China.- 4. Current situation of eldercare labor system in China .- 5. Quantitative analysis of the eldercare labor demand in China.- 6. Quantitative analysis of the eldercare labor shortfall in China.- 7. International practice and implications.- 8. Main Conclusion and Coping Strategies.

Yali Zhu is Associate Professor of School of Economics & Management, China University of Geosciences, and Member of a council of both China Population Association and Hubei Population Association. Yali Zhu graduated from School of Economics, Nankai Univerity in 2009 with a doctor degree of economics, majoring in Population,Resources and Environmental Economics and took part in joint research project at University of Waterloo from 2006 to 2007 as Visiting Scholar. After Ph.D. graduation, Yali Zhu hosted 5 projects including a National Social Science Fund project titled “eldercare labor demand in China and coping strategy” and took part in more than 10 projects and published more than 10 papers in population field in “population research” and “Chinese Journal of Population Science”.