Cultures of Prediction in Atmospheric and Climate Science Epistemic and Cultural Shifts in Computer-based Modelling and Simulation

In recent decades, science has experienced a revolutionary shift. The development and extensive application of computer modelling and simulation has transformed the knowledge-making practices of scientific fields as diverse as astro-physics, genetics, robotics and demography. This epistemic transformation has brought with it a simultaneous heightening of political relevance and a renewal of international policy agendas, raising crucial questions about the nature and application of simulation knowledges throughout public policy. Through a diverse range of case studies, spanning over a century of theoretical and practical developments in the atmospheric and environmental sciences, this book argues that computer modelling and simulation have substantially changed scientific and cultural practices and shaped the emergence of novel ‘cultures of prediction’. Making an innovative, interdisciplinary contribution to understanding the impact of computer modelling on research practice, institutional configurations and broader cultures, this volume will be essential reading for anyone interested in the past, present and future of climate change and the environmental sciences.

IntroductionMatthias Heymann, Gabriele Gramelsberger, Martin Mahony Key characteristics of cultures of predictionMatthias Heymann, Gabriele Gramelsberger, Martin MahonyPart I Junctions: Science and politics of prediction Calculating the weather. Emerging cultures of meteorological prediction in late ninetieth and early twentieth century Europe Gabriele Gramelsberger Which design for a weather predictor? Speculating on the future of electronic forecasting in post-war America Christoph Rosol5) A new climate. Hubert H. Lamb and boundary work at the UK Meteorological Office Janet Martin-Nielsen From heuristic to predictive. Making climate models into political instruments Matthias Heymann, Nils Randlev Hundebøl How to develop climate models? The "gamble" of improving climate model parameterizations Hélène Guillemot Part II Challenges and debates: Negotiating and using simulation knowledge The (re)emergence of regional climate. Mobile models, regional visions and the government of climate change Martin Mahony Bellwether, exceptionalism, and other tropes. Political coproduction of arctic climate modeling Nina Wormbs, Ralf Döscher, Annika E. Nilsson, Sverker Sörlin From predictive to instructive. Using models for geo engineering Johann Feichter, Markus Quante Validating models in the face of uncertainty. Geotechnical engineering and dike vulnerability in the Netherlands Matthijs Kouw Tracing uncertainty management through four IPCC Assessment Reports and beyond Catharina Landström The future face of the Earth. The visual semantics of the future in the climate change imagery of the IPCC Birgit Schneider

Matthias Heymann is Associate Professor for the history of science and technology at the Centre for Science Studies, Aarhus University, Denmark.Gabriele Gramelsberger is a Professor for philosophy of digital media at the University Witten/Herdecke, Germany. Martin Mahony is a British Academy Postdoctoral Fellow in the School of Geography, University of Nottingham.