Cross-Impact Balances (CIB) for Scenario Analysis Fundamentals and Implementation

Cross-Impact Balances (CIB) is a method frequently used for research, in companies and in administrations for the systematic construction of qualitative scenarios. This book introduces the fundamentals of the method and uses a clear step-by-step example to explain how scenarios can be constructed with CIB. It describes possible problems in applying the method and offers help for various use cases. It includes a detailed discussion of the design decisions that shape a CIB application and the methods that can be used to collect the necessary data. The application examples presented provide a first impression of the possibilities of the method. A discussion of the strengths and limitations of the method offers guidance on the use cases in which CIB can be profitably applied. The book is valuable for researchers and practitioners in the field of scenario analysis.

1 Introduction.- 2 The Application Field of CIB.- 3 Foundations of CIB.- 4 Analyzing Scenario Portfolios.- 5 What if… Challenges in CIB practice.- 6 Data in CIB.- 7 CIB at Work.- 8 Reflections on CIB

Dr. Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle is head of the CIB-Lab at the Center for Interdisciplinary Risk and Innovation Studies (ZIRIUS) at the University of Stuttgart, Germany. He has been researching and lecturing in the field of scenario methodology for more than 25 years and is the originator of the Cross-Impact Balances (CIB) method, which is meanwhile an internationally established and widely used method for the creation of qualitative scenarios on energy, water, health, and other areas. Dr. Weimer-Jehle has developed the ScenarioWizard software, which is today the standard tool for applying the CIB method.