A Primer to Causal Reasoning About a Complex World

This open access book is about causal thinking and the use of causal language, with a focus on introducing philosophical ideas about causation to students and researchers of Social-Ecological  Systems (SES). It takes a systematic approach to three central topics: the meanings of different causal expressions, sufficiency of evidence for inferences from observations to causal relations, and how to handle the complexity of causal relations in social-ecological systems. Consequently, the book is divided into three parts. In the first part the authors analyse and discuss the use of causal idiom in ordinary language, and in the second part they scrutinise the use of causal concepts and causal inference in science. Finally, the authors discuss causal reasoning about social-ecological systems in multi- and interdisciplinary contexts.

This book provides an analysis of the concept of causation useful in the empirical sciences, where causal notions and idioms  often are used without sufficient reflection. Empirical sciences often use causal idiom drawn from ordinary language, and similarly there is little formalisation of causal language and technical concepts in the humanities and social sciences. This book is a valuable resource for the application of current philosophical discussions about the concept of causation, in particular when applied to the analysis of social-ecological systems, but also when applied to research in the sciences and humanities.

Chapter 1. Introduction: Causation in Social-Ecological Systems.- Part I: Semantics of causal expressions.- Chapter 2. Causal Talk Permeates Ordinary Language.- Chapter 3. Causal Talk is Fundamental.- Chapter 4. Causation, Counterfactual Dependence and Potential Outcomes.- Part II: Causation in Science.- Chapter 5. Causal Relations and Causal Relata in Science.- Chapter 6. Causation, Laws and Regularities.- Chapter 7. Inferences from Statistics to Causation.- Chapter 8. Causal Explanations.- Part III: Causation in Complex SES.- Chapter 9. Causation in Social-Ecological Systems Research.- Part IV: Appendices.- A How Does a Theory Relate to Reality?.- B Models.- C. Confidence Intervals and Correlations.

Lars-Göran Johansson is emeritus professor of theoretical philosophy at Uppsala University, Sweden. He has published seven books and a number of papers  in general philosophy of science, epistemology and philosophy of physics. Four of the books are textbooks, three in Swedish, one in English. His research focuses on laws of nature, causation, induction, the interpretation of quantum mechanics and of string theory.  In all areas he is arguing for an empiricist and naturalistic approach to philosophical issues in science in general and natural science in particular.

Thomas Banitz is a mathematician at the Department of Ecological Modelling at the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ in Leipzig, Germany. He develops and applies computational models for various systems, for example terrestrial plant communities, social-ecological systems, or microbial ecosystems.He uses models to study key mechanisms in such systems, emergent population and community dynamics and ecosystem functions. Specific topics include the causes and consequences of organisms’ dispersal, interactions, traits, diversity and spatiotemporal organization, and effects of environmental heterogeneity, stress, disturbance and change. His work also focuses on the concepts and methods for developing and analyzing different kinds of computational models (e.g. population-level models, individual-based models), for combining these models with data (e.g. digital twinning), and for using them to understand and predict system dynamics under various environmental regimes.

Volker Grimm is a biologist and physicist at the Department of Ecological Modelling at the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ in Leipzig, and Professor Emeritus of Theoretical Ecology at the University of Potsdam. He is co-author of both a monograph and the first textbook on agent-based modelling. His research focuses on optimising model development, communication and validation. He has been involved in modelling a wide range of plant and animal populations and communities. Using agent-based models, he seeks to link behaviour and personality to population and community dynamics. More recently, he has chaired the standards working group of the Open Modelling Foundation and is involved in the development of a honey bee model towards a ‘digital twin’. Through his work on standards such as ODD and TRACE, he has collaborated with colleagues from a wide range of disciplines.

Tilman Hertz  is a researcher at the Stockholm Resilience Centre/Stockholm University. He is particularly interested in applying process-relational perspectives to the analysis of complex adaptive systems such as social-ecological systems with a particular focus on the topic of causation and transformations towards sustainability. He is also interested in the theoretical and practical aspects related to the conceptualization and implementation of change-making processes and actively involved contributing to the scholarship on complexity-aware “theories of change”.

Emilie Lindkvist holds a Ph.D. in sustainability science, and works as a researcher at the Stockholm Resilience Center, where she leads the Interacting Complexities research group and several international research projects. Complex causality is a central theme in her research, where she uses simulation modeling, particularly agent-based modeling, to uncover complex causal relationships in combination with empirical research. Employing an inter- and transdisciplinary approach, she actively engages with fellow academics and practitioners from diverse fields. Lindkvist’s research covers various cases worldwide, including Mexico, Tanzania, French Polynesia, and Sweden. Her research has yielded important insights into diverse phenomena, including social differentiation, cooperation, self-governance, sustainable resource use, inequality, compliance, and well-being, often in the context of small-scale fisheries and development research. Lindkvist’s research contributes significantly to the advancement of sustainability efforts through theory development and action-oriented research on social-ecological systems.

Sonja Radosavljevic is a researcher at the Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University. She has a PhD in theoretical and applied mathematics and strong interest in sustainability science. She uses mathematical tools, in particular dynamical systems and evolutionary game-theoretic models, to explore how system structure influences its dynamics, brings about observed behavior, and enables or prevents transformations of social-ecological systems.  She leads a project on sustainable poverty